Trend of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Due to Air Pollution and Non-optimal Temperature in Iran (1990-2030)

Air pollution and climate change are one of the fundamental problems of the environment and public health, and are considered as one of the risk factors of cardiovascular diseases. As a developing country, Iran is also facing this dilemma. This study aims to investigate trends in cardiovascular mortality related to air pollutants and non-optimal high and low temperatures in Iran from 1990 to 2021, and to forecast until 2030, separately for the two sex groups.

The data used in this study were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) website, the latest version of which is GBD 2021. For analysis, the geographical distribution was used to describe the age-standardized mortality rate in 2021 for each of Iran's provinces in ArcMap GIS software, and then the join-point regression was used to examine annual trends and changes, and to produce a ten-year forecast.

The findings showed that the average annual changes in the mortality rate of cardiovascular disease due to ambient particulate matter, lead exposure, and low temperature have been decreasing from 1990 to 2021, and only for the non-optimal high temperature, an increasing trend was observed in the last ten years, and the forecast also indicates an increase in cases related to this cause.

This study examines trends in cardiovascular mortality in Iran from 1990 to 2021 due to air pollution, lead exposure, and non-optimal temperatures, with projections through 2030. The highest mortality rates are observed in provinces with severe air pollution, intensive use of chemical fertilizers, and extreme climate conditions. While mortality linked to particulate matter and lead exposure has declined, deaths related to high temperatures are increasing, highlighting the urgent need for environmental and climate interventions.

Applying the right policies to control and reduce pollutants can also help reduce the risks posed by climate change and will, of course, have a positive effect on cardiovascular mortality in the coming years.